When we think about getting faster on the bike, finishing higher on the results sheet, or want to smash a PR at our goal time trial, we usually only think about more power. What we think far less about, if thinking about it at all, is how we produce the power and when. In other words, we think and do far too little about pacing.
Yet, getting the right pacing for your particular event can have a huge impact on your performance. And still, so many people mess it up. No matter which race I attended there were always other riders that were going way too hard at the start and then paid for it later. I’m guilty of it myself. I learned from first-hand experience of going too hard at the start and getting dropped later on.
But hold on. This is not another “be more conservative” bit of advice. Being more conservative can actually be very bad advice depending on the event you’re training for. In fact, according to a review article on pacing strategies in athletic competition there are 6 different pacing strategies in endurance sports that all aim to optimize performance in 6 different endurance scenarios:
- Negative
- Positive
- Even
- All-Out
- Parabolic
- Variable
We get to them one by one and I will show you how you can use your heart rate monitor and your power meter to optimize these later on. With this in mind, here’s how to know when to dig in and when to hold back.
1. It’s Not All That Negative
The first pacing strategy I want to address is negative pacing. While sounding like a bad approach just off its name, it’s actually a solid strategy. Especially runners talk a lot about it when proudly announcing they ran the second half of their race faster than the first. That’s what negative pacing is all about. An increase in speed over the duration of the event.
In fact, most running world records were set on negative pacing. Even some longer ones. The most popular currently being the marathon world record obliterated in Chicago by Kelvin Kiptum in 2023 in crazy negative split fashion. He ran the first half in 60:48 minutes, only to run the second half in an insane 59:47 minutes to clock in a 2:00:35 hour marathon.
But negative pacing is not only extremely useful for runners. No. There’s also good reason to adopt this strategy in cycling.
According to a 2001 study on the impact of starting strategy on cycling performance, holding back for 15% below self-selected pace at the first four minutes of a 20k time trial compared to self-selected pace and 15% above self-selected pace results in a faster overall time trial even though the power was significantly lower in the 15% below group at the start.
So a hard effort at the start of a tt doesn’t cut it.
Yet most people pace poorly and choose a starting strategy that is too high. Take a 20 minute FTP test for example. Most riders expect to hit a certain power number, go out too hard, blow up and then call the FTP test a shitty test approach. If, instead, they take it slow in the first 2-4 minutes to find their pace and finish strong they would enjoy the test far more and finish a far more satisfying result.
Negative pacing is as useful in middle-distance events like tts, FTP tests or hill climbs because it’s thought to reduce the rate of carbohydrate depletion, lowering excessive oxygen consumption and limiting the accumulation of fatigue-related metabolites.
The biggest issue with this approach is that it takes tremendous courage to hold back in the beginning for a better ending.
2. It’s Not all That Positive
Next up we have positive pacing. As the name suggests it’s not really positive and the opposite of negative pacing. Your speed gradually declines throughout the duration of the event.
This is the pacing strategy most cyclists for most events should avoid. Because slowing down throughout the event almost always leads to poor performance with a few exceptions.
100 and 200 metre swimming, 2k rowing or 800 metre running all apply a positive pacing successfully. This is because the duration in such events is too short to hold back and is instead about who fades the least.
On the other hand, whether intended or not, ultra-endurance events over four hours end up in positive pacing. However, it’s not the best strategy for these events and rather a result of glycogen depletion, muscle fatigue and psychological factors.
There are cases in races when positive pacing is your best bet though. The most obvious one being an attack to break away. So you attack to create a gap before settling into a more sustainable pace to keep the gap.
Furthermore, positive pacing is assumed to be the way to go in xc-mtb or cyclocross racing but as we’ll see when looking a little closer, what we assume is not the fastest way.
3. Steady is a Skill
As mentioned in the beginning, most people would naturally give you the following pacing advice: “Keep a steady pace. Keep it consistent.”
Even pacing is what most people refer to when thinking about pacing. No hard start, no fading, just go as even as you can. Essentially, the pacing strategy for most self-paced events. And for good reason. It’s a very effective strategy.
For example, a case study looked at a participant who once set the one hour record on the track and found that the pacing was remarkably even throughout the whole hour. That’s usually the way you would approach most time trials. Try to ride as consistently as possible. However, this is easier said than done. Pacing consistently is a tough skill to learn that takes years of failing time trials and FTP tests.
Surprisingly, though, in variable events like xc-mtb and cyclocross maintaining even lap times is the fastest way from start to finish.
A 2018 study on power output and pacing in elite, international cross-country mountain bikers found that both speed and power output decreased from start loop to lap one before stabilizing until the end of the race. That’s the key in xc-racing. The start position is extremely important so in the first 30 seconds there is no holding back even though the race continues for an hour or two. But what happens next is critical. So five minutes after the start you need to start thinking about proper pacing.
That being said, pacing other cycling races evenly is the goal for most and a result of staying on top of your nutrition and executing a smart start strategy.
Yet, similar to negative pacing it takes lots of delayed gratification and acceptance of uncertainty to master this strategy.
4. All-In
What did we all do at our first bike race? Exactly, we sprinted off the start line as if there’s no tomorrow only to be found on the roadside five minutes later feeling like we had a heart attack.
All-out pacing is throwing pacing out of the window and telling you to go as hard as you can. But this anti-strategy is pretty useful in the right event or context. For example, in the 1000 metre track sprint your best bet is all-in from the start and holding on til the line. Apparently you can’t hold that very long but this is also how you would approach every finish line sprint.
And as mentioned above, all-out is the way to go at every xc-mtb and cyclocross race start. Don’t hold back. Go all-in and fight for that position before settling into race pace.
5. Taking a U-Approach to Things
Most road races, most gravel races and even some mountain bike marathons have one thing in common: they all have a fast start, followed by a slower middle, finished by a tough ending. This is called parabolic pacing. Depending on the intensity of the race parabolic can have a U-shaped, J-shaped or reverse J-shaped form of pacing.
Basically every race that has a tight competition adapts this pacing strategy out of necessity.
For example, when I did some UCI 1.1 races the pattern was the following: fast start til breakaway formed, easy middle like normal forever pace, insanely fast finish either finishing in a hard sprint or a tough climb.
This is similar in every race where the group stays together for a longer period like even in gravel racing or mtb marathons.
Such races are highly tactical and drafting is key with the main goal being to conserve as much energy as possible.
But of course cycling races and even time trials face other obstacles that can have a huge influence on the pacing. Let’s talk about that now.
6. Sometimes Steady Doesn’t Get You Very Far
Almost no race or time trial is pancake flat with no or little wind. There will always be other obstacles you are faced with – be it some sort of elevation, difficult terrain or a strong headwind to deal with.
To account for these barriers there’s variable pacing.
Variable paces involves adjusting your pacing based on the course demands. You have a hilly course coming up? Go harder on the climbs and ease up downhill. Sure, most people naturally already do this but there’s a pretty good reason to implement this strategy to other cycling events too.
For example, research has found in a simulated 10k time trial with a 70kg rider on a modelled 1k uphill, downhill alternation that a variable pacing with more power on the climbs was 1 minute and 33 seconds faster compared to a constant pacing. They ran a similar test but this time on a 40k TT with a 5k headwind, tailwind alternation. Once more variable pacing, where participants pushed harder into the headwind and eased up in the tailwind, was 29 seconds faster than a consistent pacing. In a world where marginal gains dominate social media, that’s a huge advantage.
But that’s not all.
Another study looking at real participants this time, let them ride a 16.1k time trial course, where the first half was a headwind and second a tailwind. Once again variable pacing came out as the winner compared to even pacing.
So what scientists concluded is that when conditions are constant, even pacing is your way to go. But when conditions are not it pays to go harder on the rough parts of the course.
As a broad guideline on rolling terrain you might do 5-10% more power on the climbs but on steep climbs you have to push significantly more power out of necessity.
Now, I’ve talked about how XC-mtb and cyclocross races show an even pacing when looking at lap time only. Of course, when looking at the power numbers they will be highly variable due to the terrain. A key I suggest here is taking a step back and looking at the average power. You will see that it is more comparable to your even lap times.
Use What You Already Have
Looking at our best options, an even, a variable and a negative pacing are the best bets for most of our cycling events. Remember that when going up a longer climb the fastest way is either a negative split or the way Team Sky and Ineos had dominated climbs at the Tour de France with an even and consistent pacing.
Now, as most cycling races follow a fast start, an easier middle and a hard ending this is also how I structure some of my workouts to specifically train this pacing pattern. As a result, I will include intensity in the beginning and end of a long endurance ride as shown below.
These days a heart rate monitor and power meter have become standard equipment for almost all levels of cyclists. To get the most out of it it’s important to understand first that in every race scenario you will be able to produce a bit more power due to social facilitation. Having others around will simply make you push harder.
But as you train and race with these tools and take a look at your data you will learn and see what is a sustainable power or heart rate for a given effort. On top of that, simply looking at a race file and seeing if your power drops significantly in the second half of the race can tell you a lot about your pacing and what to work on for your next race.
After all, mastering pacing is about getting your mental attitude together and having the courage to hold back when those around you lack it.
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Resources
- A model for optimizing cycling performance by varying power on hills and in wind
- Changes in Running Speeds in a 100 KM Ultra-Marathon Race
- Impact of Starting Strategy on Cycling Performance
- Scientific approach to the 1-h cycling world record: a case study
- Describing and Understanding Pacing Strategies during Athletic Competition
- Power Output and Pacing During International Cross-Country Mountain Bike Cycling
- Pacing strategies during a cycling time trial with simulated headwinds and tailwinds
- Social Facilitation: A Meta-Analysis of 241 Studies
- Variable power pacing decreases finishing time compared to constant pacing in cycling time trials: A systematic review and meta-analysis